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+--- Thread: Drop Chance (/Thread-Drop-Chance)
Drop Chance - Pluton - 12-22-2011
Your Chance on Each Attempt is the Same
If your item has a 1% chance of dropping, it will always be 1% on every single attempt.
It's not any more likely to drop on the 50th attempt or the 500th attempt, it's still 1%. Every. Single. Time.
In other words, drop rates are not cumulative. If you have a drop rate of 10%, you don't run something 10 times and get guaranteed to get it. You have a 10% chance each time that it will drop. Your previous chances do not affect future chances.
Your Chance Over Multiple Attempts Increases
Even though your chance on each single attempt always remains the same, the probability of getting your drop over the course of multiple attempts increases.
That why we keep doing it and keep doing it, and eventually our persistence is rewarded. Sometimes you'll get lucky, and sometimes you'll get unlucky, and the more you try the better your odds are overall. But the chance will never be 100%. It's never guaranteed.
How to Calculate it for Yourself
The formula to calculate your drop chance ( x ) over any given number of runs ( y ) is this:
Code:
1 - ( ( 1 - x ) ^ y )Disclaimer: There is absolutely no guarantee that Batheo uses % drop rates.
In fact, there could be a drop quota, and the drops are pre-assigned to the 5th, 18th win on each NPC or whatever. I am saying this because there was a pattern on full Laevateinn drops from HL2: that item would drop on one member of our faction, then after a regular amount of time, drop on the other faction, then on the 3rd faction. We would then expect the next Full Leavateinn to drop on one member of our faction.
RE: Drop Chance - Evilness - 12-23-2011
I hate their drop system. I always get unlucky. Started farming ares's armor 2 weeks before anyone else and now i have 5 frags less then most. I never get drop from legion and rarley from themis. The only fair system would be counted drop rate. For x munber of attacks you would always get 1 drop. Fair for everyone.
RE: Drop Chance - Orochi - 12-23-2011
i never believe in equal drop % chance for everybody.
i only believe some ppl are more lucky than others. if u're lucky in game, u'll get good luck all the way. if u're not u'll hardly get any luck at all.
see the person getting a full purp drop from a legion? chances are that before u even get your first full drop (if ever), that same person will get his 2nd, or 3rd, or even 4th full drop.
RE: Drop Chance - Evilness - 12-23-2011
Orochi you are not completely right. I have awesome luck with enchanting and washing but horrible luck with drops. Never had good luck with drops but lately it has become just horrible. I do agree with the second part. 1 person on our server got 3 full purple weapons and another 2. Even now they have luck with everything especially armor frags.
RE: Drop Chance - Orochi - 12-23-2011
when i said good luck all the way, i was refering to full drops n not including other luck factors like enchanting/washing. although it applies similarly, if u're lucky with enchanting, u're usually lucky all the way (the kind that can succeed with only 1st option). same for washing. and commissioning. every account usually has it's lucky and unlucky areas, some are extremely lucky in some areas while being lousier in others, some are just plain unlucky in everything.. like my main account lol.
RE: Drop Chance - Guest - 01-04-2012
VIP status can greatly increase drop rates... they have "gold for extra attack" which have a separate drop rate, and "gold for extra drop rate".