Your Chance on Each Attempt is the Same
If your item has a 1% chance of dropping, it will always be 1% on every single attempt.
It's not any more likely to drop on the 50th attempt or the 500th attempt, it's still 1%. Every. Single. Time.
In other words, drop rates are not cumulative. If you have a drop rate of 10%, you don't run something 10 times and get guaranteed to get it. You have a 10% chance each time that it will drop. Your previous chances do not affect future chances.
Your Chance Over Multiple Attempts Increases
Even though your chance on each single attempt always remains the same, the probability of getting your drop over the course of multiple attempts increases.
That why we keep doing it and keep doing it, and eventually our persistence is rewarded. Sometimes you'll get lucky, and sometimes you'll get unlucky, and the more you try the better your odds are overall. But the chance will never be 100%. It's never guaranteed.
How to Calculate it for Yourself
The formula to calculate your drop chance ( x ) over any given number of runs ( y ) is this:
Disclaimer: There is absolutely no guarantee that Batheo uses % drop rates.
In fact, there could be a drop quota, and the drops are pre-assigned to the 5th, 18th win on each NPC or whatever. I am saying this because there was a pattern on full Laevateinn drops from HL2: that item would drop on one member of our faction, then after a regular amount of time, drop on the other faction, then on the 3rd faction. We would then expect the next Full Leavateinn to drop on one member of our faction.
If your item has a 1% chance of dropping, it will always be 1% on every single attempt.
It's not any more likely to drop on the 50th attempt or the 500th attempt, it's still 1%. Every. Single. Time.
In other words, drop rates are not cumulative. If you have a drop rate of 10%, you don't run something 10 times and get guaranteed to get it. You have a 10% chance each time that it will drop. Your previous chances do not affect future chances.
Your Chance Over Multiple Attempts Increases
Even though your chance on each single attempt always remains the same, the probability of getting your drop over the course of multiple attempts increases.
That why we keep doing it and keep doing it, and eventually our persistence is rewarded. Sometimes you'll get lucky, and sometimes you'll get unlucky, and the more you try the better your odds are overall. But the chance will never be 100%. It's never guaranteed.
How to Calculate it for Yourself
The formula to calculate your drop chance ( x ) over any given number of runs ( y ) is this:
Code:
1 - ( ( 1 - x ) ^ y )Disclaimer: There is absolutely no guarantee that Batheo uses % drop rates.
In fact, there could be a drop quota, and the drops are pre-assigned to the 5th, 18th win on each NPC or whatever. I am saying this because there was a pattern on full Laevateinn drops from HL2: that item would drop on one member of our faction, then after a regular amount of time, drop on the other faction, then on the 3rd faction. We would then expect the next Full Leavateinn to drop on one member of our faction.
